The accidental political blog of RJ Marmol. Try-hard punditry and then some.

Forget the "Undecideds" or the "Swing voters". The "Donkey voter" is not a myth. In fact, it might just dictate this year's election results.

A refresher on "Swing" votes

Benign0, the Webmaster of GetRealPhilippines.com, in a post exclusively written for Blogwatch.ph expressed his concern (he says he is neither undecided nor particularly fussed about who will win) over an underrated and underestimated group of voters known as the "undecideds" or the "swing voters".

***

Note that the term "swing" also apply in a multi-party system like ours. This is not exclusive to a two-party system. In the United States for example, although it may seem they have a bi-party system (Democrats vs. Republicans), there are actually minor parties that have successfully benefited from a "swing vote". These have occurred in instances where say, an unsatisfied Republican who is apathetic to the Democrats opted for a third party choice. A similar case for a Democrat also happens.

***

For the "undecided", Benigno puts the figure at anywhere between 2-6%, does the Math and arrives at the conclusion that it's actually difficult to determine its impact on the election results because being "floating" (read: not "flying") voters, you simply can't tell where their votes will go.

I guess this is the part where I can honestly say that it can be anyone's game. And that to hastily conclude that today's survey-leading candidate will surely win (even with reduced winning margin) may not be entirely prudent. For all we know, those undecided may ultimately form into a solid "vote block" for the second placer. If that happens, then the second placer may actually have a chance.

Now if these undecideds however opt to split their votes on the 3rd to last placer, then 1st placer's victory is in the bag.

The undervalued and overlooked "Donkey voter"

Alas, there is a segment of voters undeservedly overlooked! This is a group whose criteria for voting for a candidate is as incomprehensible as Partial Equations is to a 3 year old.

Their voting behavior is more unpredictable than the weather and more amusing than a rerun of Takeshi's Castle.

Neither your multi-million infomercial nor your honeyed-tongue and jaw-dropping good looks can shatter their reinforced wall of apathy and laziness.

You can drop dead in front of them and they wouldn't care. They are a force to be reckoned with -- a law unto themselves. They answer to no one and they don't give a hoot about foreign policy or climate change or Charter change or whether Manny Pacquiao wins or loses -- heck, their indifference is the stuff of legends.

They are "donkey voters" and they are out to take us for a ride -- a long, slow ride that is.

Wikipedia describes a donkey voter as "someone who votes for candidates based solely upon the order they are listed on the ballot paper".

The so-called donkey votes are said to be cast by "uninterested protesting and ignorant voters". And one of the reasons why donkey votes occur is the lack of "none of the above" option -- which compels people to vote even when they are either "undecided" or "unwilling" to vote for lack of a better choice.

If you don't think this isn't such a big issue or that it hardly happens in our country, then why, may I ask, is Noynoy hell bent on urging the COMELEC that Vetellano Acosta's name be stricken out of the ballot paper -- a tedious, costly and risky process considering COMELEC's race against time, when Acosta has already been disqualified in the first place and that any vote for him will be considered void? I'll tell you why -- it's because of donkey votes.

It's also the reason why Party Lists vying for a congressional seat have come up with the weirdest of names as 1-AANI and 1-UTAK. Because in the battle of Party Lists, as in the battle for any other elective post, top of page is top of mind.

What does this all mean?

To the "unconscious" aka the ignorant voters, this problem is a shared responsibility between the government and the voting public. However, the government carries a bigger chunk of this responsibility. Election awareness and all activities related to it must be the major thrust of the COMELEC. The lack of "resources" should never be a convenient excuse.

To the "conscious" donkey voters, obviously, nothing. As Jason Mraz aptly puts it, "The remedy is the experience, it is a dangerous liaison / I say the comedy is that it's serious.." They are simply taking out their frustration about the government on the voting system itself. Feeling hopeless and resentful, they resort to distort the system and play our country's future like a deck of cards.

These people belong in either one of these two categories: 1) Poorest of the poor who have lost their faith in everything -- much less, the electoral process or; 2) The obscenely rich who are so damn sure that they won't be a penny poorer regardless of who becomes President and who couldn't care less if the world ended today.

Which category do you belong to? Neither of the two? Swell. That gives us one less donkey vote to worry about. Unless of course you belong to the undecideds. :)

***Note: Donkey voting has been proven to be more prevalent in countries that practice "compulsory" or forced voting. Since voting here in the Philippines, although highly encouraged, remains essentially voluntary, it is assumed that people who bother to register and ultimately vote come election day have a lesser chance of being "uninterested protesting and ignorant voters".

Popularity: 1% [?]

I'm no boxing fan. That's for sure.

But ever since Manny Pacquiao started breathing new life to "the poor man's sport" long dominated by Mexicans and African Americans -- like the usual Filipino, I realized that falling in love with the sport became as inevitable as falling in love with Manny's talent and sheer dedication to it.

Manny Pacquiao may be many things to many people -- a source of inspiration, a source of fascination, a source of intrigue -- a source of income.

But who cares what he is to these other people? Who cares really?

All I know is that every time he fights he makes me excited like a kid about to buy a new toy. He makes my stomach churn, my heart throb like crazy each time I see his toned body pressed against the ropes.

Whenever he's in the ring, I pray earnestly under my breath for his victory. Intensely. Sincerely. And I do so as if his possible failure is mine to bear -- his probable victory, mine to celebrate.

In today's "The Event", Manny fought as fiercely and as confidently as he always did in the past -- only better than before that and before that.

He just keeps getting better every time.

And while fans used to a KO (knockout) seemed a little less jubilant, I am immensely happy that Manny has once again made me feel like a kid for an entire day.

More than a new toy, Manny has given me a sense of pride, a sense of patriotism rekindled by his beautiful 'dance' inside the ring.

It takes more than mere love for the sport to appreciate and understand today's bout. Fans can only see as far as the center of the ring.

It seems that in boxing, it's not how well you started it. Not even how awesomely you ended it. It's how you went about it and how you made people feel while you're at it. The glory of boxing is "in the moment" -- not in the announcement of the winner or the glamorous after-party or the hefty paycheck.

The glory is in how Manny Pacquiao has once again proven to the world that like wine, he gets better with age. Like metal subjected to fire, he becomes malleable to perfection -- a sight to behold and scorching to touch. There seems to be no end to the number of combinations and styles he learns to use. To say that he may have elevated boxing to an artform is an understatement.

The fight didn't look boring from afar because Joshua Clottey almost never let down his guard or that he threw so few punches. His body seems hard as stone and his punches, few as they come -- ensure that they're felt.

It looked boring because Manny made it look so damn easy.

His ease in the ring however is in stark contrast with his intense and serious training outside of it -- away from the bright lights, from the deafening screams of spectators.

The explanation to Clottey's all-out defense is best given by the man himself. In the post game interview, when asked why he wouldn't let his guard down, Clottey explained that he wanted to protect himself from Pacquiao's speed in the first few rounds and planned to throw punches only when he feels he has already gauged Manny Pacquiao's movements. That time, to his surprise, never came. And before he knew it, 12 rounds had passed and the chance he had been waiting for was lost to oblivion.

It took Joshua Clottey 12 rounds of strictly defensive boxing to know what we've known over the years -- that boxing has redefined Manny Pacquiao. And that Manny, in turn, has redefined boxing.

That's Manny Pacquiao. That's boxing. And now, it has become impossible to define one without the other.

Popularity: 1% [?]

Updated: March 14, 2010 @ 4pm (PHT)

I would like to apologize to those some 4,000 or more people who tuned in to watch my livestream during the last undercard fight (Soto vs. Diaz ) who were left hanging because the 3G signal suddenly went down for unknown reasons and there was hardly any WiFi signal available so I had to switch to Qik coverage which isn't real-time compared to Ustream.tv.

Ustream  wouldn't let me stream the content, probably due to the poor Edge/GPRS signal I was getting.

Anyway, for those interested, I have recorded 7 videos (highlights) available for viewing at my Qik channel.

****

I'm pretty sure many of you are eager to watch our very own Manny Pacquiao fight against Ghanaian Joshua Clottey tomorrow, March 14, 2010 @ 9:00am (PHT). And what better way to watch it than live via pay-per-view, right?

But if you can't watch it live and you have online access, you may want to check for updates through my live-mobile-blog here.

I will be live-tweeting/liveblogging the event (will login 30 mins. earlier). Live updates will be available here on the sidebar -->> and on my ScribbleLive page so if you can't watch it live, you might want to keep tab or bookmark this post.

Comments will be enabled and related live tweets will also be streamed to make sure you don't miss out on other people's "pacquiao" tweets.

If circumstances will permit, I will try to livestream the event in either of these embedded streams below.

Free TV : Ustream

Image from: pacquiao-vs-clottey.cebuspace.com

Image from: www1.pictures.zimbio.com

Where to watch "The Event: Pacquiao vs. Clottey" live via pay-per-view:

For Filipinos in the Middle East, Europe and Australia:
1. TFC (The Filipino Channel) offers pay-per-view dubbed "Walang Atrasan: Pacquiao vs. Clottey"

In Metro Manila:
1. All SM malls
2. All Robinsons malls
3. All Ayala Center malls
4. Araneta Coliseum
5. Rockwell Cinema
6. Eastwood Cinema
7. Aliw Theater @ Star City

Metro Manila restaurants/bars:

1. All TGI Friday's

2. National Sports Grill @ Greenbelt 3

3. Dencio's Metrowalk

For details on restaurant charges, please refer to this.

In Calamba, Laguna:
1. Max's Restaurant Calamba (Montevista Resort)
2. David's Teahouse (National Highway, Brgy. Lecheria)
3. Ding-Hao Restaurant (National Highway)

Popularity: 2% [?]

While Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar are engaged in frenzied mudslinging at each other, someone's reaping all the benefits.

While these two top contenders are busy trying to knock themselves out of the ring, someone just got in.

Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro didn't get to where he is now at such a young age by chance. He didn't become Defense chief by sheer luck. The man clearly is "all about winning". Teodoro is, by my modest estimates, highly-driven.

And if there's one thing I've learned over time, it is that "the world makes way for the driven". Always.

When a man of quick wit and charm opens his mouth, the world, as if compelled by the elements of the universe -- listens.

The guy seems to know exactly what to do and is actually doing it well. He attends just about any forum/debate there is and leave audiences enthralled, mouths agape.

For reasons unknown to me, he has reportedly reduced trimedia ads spending. He is now concentrating on that 'grassroots' buzzword sort of campaigning -- doing it the old-fashioned way yet disarmingly endearing. And the latest survey results seem to prove that he is on the right track.

Could Gibo (and not Erap) be in fact the real 'third wheel'?

Watch out hotshots. Someone forgot to lock the back door. And that someone will pay a dear, dear price for such negligence and complacency.

If you two allow yourselves to be entirely invested in your petty fights any longer, you might as well stand aside and make way for Gibo.

Because if we wanted a dose of highly-entertaining boxing, we would have all flown to Texas to watch Manny Pacquiao box his heart out against Clottey. Thank God for pay-per-view.

Your political bickerings were cute for a time but let's face it, you can only stretch a joke like this for so long.

Can't you guys see the writing on the wall yet? Or are you both in a state of comforting denial?

While Noynoy's survey ratings are steadily decreasing and Manny's seem to have reached its peak (now slowly decreasing as well), Gibo's rating is slowly but surely increasing!

Shape up. Shut up. Regroup and revisit your strategic plans. Now is the time to engage in tactical guerilla warfare.

Otherwise, you'll find yourselves against the ropes or worse, face flat on the floor, bloody and all.

*** Based on experience, my blog poll has reflected future survey results fairly well. It has predicted Noynoy's rise and fall and Villar's surprising rise from fall. This time, Gibo is fast catching up with Noynoy and has amazingly overtook Manny Villar in a matter of days.

Maybe we were all wrong after all. There must be something profoundly clever in Ronnie Puno's smug looks and reasurring statements that will eventually prove to us all that in reality, we know nothing and we were never in control.

Popularity: 1% [?]

Has it really been a year since I last wrote about International Women's Day in 2009? It seems only yesterday.

If I have to,
I can do anything.
I am strong.
I am invincible.
I am woman.

Every year, we go through this process when we pause for a moment and think about how our lives have been touched one way or another by a woman. It may range from a simple, comforting smile to an entire life changed forever by one woman's courage or strength or love.

Photo by *Zara

Everyday, we see them walk among us -- women just being themselves, doing what they do best -- serving and protecting, nurturing and loving, giving and inspiring...

Their selfless acts have become as natural to them as breathing, their show of support as ubiquitous as a tap on one's shoulder just when you need it.

It's an overwhelming experience -- to be loved selflessly and tirelessly by someone so strong yet so fragile, so sweet yet so dangerous, so innocent yet so knowledgeable. So sensitive yet so strong.

It is precisely these very same contradictions that make women so unique. Whether it's a mother's touch, a friend's embrace or a lover's kiss -- a woman's inexplicable capacity to take in so much and give the same without losing anything in the process but instead gaining more and giving more is almost magical if not unbelievable.

The love of a woman is fierce -- like a double-edged sword too dangerous for the faint of heart and too pure for the opportunistic soul.

Oftentimes, a woman's capacity for great love is downplayed as nothing more than a dutiful fulfillment of her mission, as if everything she does must have a reason, otherwise she is but a lost soul, whose existence becomes devoid of meaning and purpose.

In truth, she needs no validation nor recognition. She seeks none of those. For to her, everything she does is a labor of love, born of her immense drive to put the other person's happiness above her own -- always. To her, that is reason enough. That is reason itself.

It's a pity that while we claim that the world has become more tolerant and accepting of women, the exact opposite is true for most of them in many countries.

With the exception of a few Western countries, more and more women in the East suffer in silence in the face of maltreatment and abuse -- most times through no fault of their own.

In stark contrast with men, society finds it hard to separate a woman's achievements and contributions from the personal life she leads. This is probably one of -- if not the biggest discrimination women face. When a male political figure commits blunders and unthinkable sins for example, the world easily downplays, forgives and forgets.

But when a woman of the same stature does the same, she is eternally doomed and haunted by past mistakes -- never to fully recover from her foibles. It is as if she is not at all allowed to be human.

(Case in point: Bill Clinton vs. Sarah Palin; Tiger Woods vs. Northern Ireland's Iris Robinson)

I'd like to think that the world, after years of struggling with feminism has changed. But the glaring truth is that it hasn't changed a bit. It just wants us to believe it has just so we'd stop whining and complaining about it.

***

International Women's Day is also a celebration of women achievements. And for this year, I choose to honor a great woman writer, Lualhati Bautista who embodies the strong and stubborn woman who refuses to sit down and take it. Her strength shines through in her writing and her life and works serve as an inspiration to aspiring women writers. Lualhati Bautista -- all talent, all woman.

Today, as we celebrate the many ways a woman loves and the many wonderful ways we have benefited from such love, let us not forget the many forgotten women all over the world -- unrecognized, abandoned and unloved.

On this day, may God touch them in the night as they fall asleep weeping, may they wake up to a more caring world the next day. May they walk without fear among the crowd. May they speak without reservations of their feelings and fears. May they find comfort in the thought that they are remembered every year.

This is for all the faceless women of the world. One day, all will be rectified. One day, they will get what's due to them. One day soon.

Today is International Women's Day. Remember all the wonderful women in your lives. Let them know they are appreciated. Let them know they are loved.

Popularity: 1% [?]

I know we're still hurting about what happened to Haiti and you've probably sent your donation there through the many available options and avenues online or offline.

Photo by ♥ Queen B

Today, if you don't know yet, let me tell you that you can DONATE TO CHILE THROUGH TEXT (for ALL GLOBE subscribers). All donations would go to the RED CROSS which will ensure that your donations would reach their intended recipients.

Just text CHILE to 2899.

Ex. CHILE 300 and send it to 2899

Available donation amounts are 5, 25, 50, 100, 30, 500 and 1000 pesos.

This transaction is free of charge. For prepaid subscribers, this amount will be deducted from your regular load balance and for postpaid subscribers, this will be charged to your account on the appropriate billing cycle.

Chileans are facing one of the toughest tragedies in their history in the aftermath of an 8.8 earthquake and recent aftershocks. Many of the civilians have resorted to looting delis and convenience stores because of the lack of food and other necessities. The situation is so out of control that the government have issued additional police powers to make arrests and restore order.

These are not your usual looters. They are ordinary people pushed to the limit by lack of assistance and possibly, hope. Let us make their lives a little bit bearable by giving what we can.

Remember, every little bit counts.

Please pass this information to as many Globe subscribers you know since not all subscribers have their Globe Advisory alerts enabled. Many may not be aware of this yet. Thank you.

Popularity: 1% [?]